WMO Lead Centre for Sub-seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble
The Lead Centre for Sub-seasonal Predictions Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SSPMME) coordinates multi-model ensembles of sub-seasonal forecasts by maintaining an archive containing a set of model fields, by creating graphical products from individual and multi-model ensembles under an agreed format and by creating verification statistics. To provide WMO Members with reliable multi-model ensembles in real time, the LC-SSPMME uses forecast data from several sub-seasonal prediction systems. Forecast data is provided by WMO Global Producing Centres for Sub-seasonal Predictions and by Contributing Centres.
Further information on forecast products and forecast digital data is here.
Global producing centre for Sub-Seasonal Predictions (GPC-SSP)
The GPC-SSP are committed to fulfilling a set of mandatory functions aiming to enhance consistency and usability of forecast information and to facilitate the exchange of data. The timely provision of forecast data to the LC-SSPMME is one of the mandatory functions (WIPPS).
Contributing centres
Contributing Centres provide the forecast data to the LC-SSPMME but have not yet applied for a formal GPC-SSP designation. Such arrangement is provisional for operational centres that potentially meet GPC-SSP criteria and will be terminated in the next few years to strongly encourage the centres to apply for a formal GPC-SSP designation.
Scientific documentation
The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) established in 2013 by the World Weather Research Program and the World Climate Research Program have been instrumental to improve the understanding of the sources of sub-seasonal predictability and to promote the uptake by operational centres. A great body of literature on many different aspects of sub-seasonal prediction has been published thanks to the availability of the S2S database containing sub-seasonal forecast and reforecasts from several operational and research centres. The WMO LC for sub-seasonal predictions builds on the legacy left by the S2S project and relies on the S2S archive infrastructure.
Further Readings:
Andrew Robertson, Frederic Vitart: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Predictions: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting, Elsevier, 19 Oct 2018
Related pages
- Further information on the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) is available here.
- Seasonal predictions from the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME).
- Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction from the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
- The Expert Team on Operational Climate Prediction Systems (ET-OCPS).